AGP Executive Report

Transport Infrastructure: The first 87 kilometres of the 127-kilometre Bagakhangai–Khushig Valley–Emeelt railway are complete. The line is designed to move hazardous cargo around central Ulaanbaatar and ease congestion. Agriculture: A new soilless greenhouse in Selenge can grow livestock feed in 8–10 days, offering herders a way to boost winter and spring supplies. Mongolia and New Zealand also discussed sharing agricultural expertise and strengthening meat-export capacity. Trade and Prices: Foreign trade turnover rose 34.6% to $25.9 billion in the first nine months, with mining accounting for nearly 90% of exports and a $6.5 billion surplus. But annual inflation climbed to 12.9% in September, led by sharp food-price increases. Credit and Growth: S&P affirmed Mongolia’s BB- rating with a stable outlook, citing mining-led growth while warning that infrastructure investment and social spending could pressure public finances.

Fuel Supply: A report on Mongolia’s summer fuel crisis highlights the contrast with luxury holidays at Khyargas Lake’s Aurum Resort, linked to the family of a central figure in the $1.1 billion Lex Oil fuel-fraud scandal. Trade and Industry: Foreign trade turnover rose 34.6% to $25.9 billion in the first nine months, with a $6.5 billion surplus; mining made up nearly 90% of exports. Industrial output also increased by more than 50%. Cost Pressures: Annual inflation reached 12.9% in September, with meat prices up 46.9% year on year and transport costs rising 3.2% from August. Transport Infrastructure: The Bagakhangai–Khushig Valley–Emeelt railway is under construction, with 87 of 127 kilometres completed. It is designed to divert hazardous freight from central Ulaanbaatar and reduce delays from rail crossings. Agriculture: A new soilless greenhouse in Selenge can grow livestock feed in 8–10 days, offering a way to bolster winter and spring supplies while training herders and students.

Trade and Mining: Mongolia’s foreign trade turnover rose 34.6% year on year to US$25.9 billion in the first nine months, with a US$6.5 billion surplus. Mining made up nearly 90% of exports. Transport Infrastructure: The Bagakhangai–Khushig Valley–Emeelt railway is 87 km complete on its 127-km route. The line is expected to move hazardous cargo around central Ulaanbaatar and ease traffic delays at rail crossings. Agriculture: A new soilless greenhouse in Selenge can grow livestock feed in 8–10 days, offering herders a potential winter and spring supply and hands-on training. Industrial Output: Production climbed 56.3% in the first eight months to MNT49.9 trillion, led by strong growth in metal ore and coal extraction. Manufacturing rose 15%, though output varied across products. Prices and Credit: September inflation reached 12.9% year on year, with food prices up 20.8%. S&P affirmed Mongolia’s BB- long-term rating with a stable outlook, citing mining-led growth while warning that infrastructure investment and social spending could pressure public finances.

Transport Infrastructure: The first 87 km of the 127-km Bagakhangai–Khushig Valley–Emeelt railway is complete. The line is designed to move hazardous cargo around central Ulaanbaatar and ease traffic delays at rail crossings. Agriculture: A new soilless greenhouse in Selenge can grow livestock feed in 8–10 days, offering herders a potential winter and spring supply and students hands-on training. Industry and Trade: Industrial output rose 56.3% in the first eight months to MNT 49.9 trillion, led by mining. Foreign trade turnover climbed 34.6% in the first nine months to US$25.9 billion, with mining accounting for nearly 90% of exports. Prices and Credit: September inflation reached 12.9% year on year, with food prices up 20.8% and meat prices up 46.9%. S&P affirmed Mongolia’s BB- rating with a stable outlook, citing mining-led growth but warning that social spending and infrastructure projects could pressure public finances. Carbon Markets: Singapore and Mongolia will open applications on October 30 for projects that could generate Paris Agreement-aligned carbon credits.

Industrial Output: Mongolia’s industrial production reached MNT 49.9 trillion in the first eight months of 2026, up 56.3% year on year. Mining drove the surge, with metal ore output up 75.8% and coal up 63.9%; manufacturing grew 15%. Exports and Trade: Export revenue hit US$16.6 billion in the first nine months, up 54% year on year. Cashmere and wool exports rose 73% to US$244 million, while meat exports fell 11%. The government is moving to ease congestion at Gashuunsukhait and advance cross-border rail links and automated customs systems. Credit Outlook: S&P affirmed Mongolia’s sovereign rating at BB- with a stable outlook, projecting average annual growth of about 5.6% through 2029. It flagged rising social spending and infrastructure investment as risks to public finances. Carbon Markets: Singapore and Mongolia will open applications on Oct. 30 for carbon-credit projects under their bilateral agreement. Eligible credits could help Singapore companies offset up to 5% of taxable emissions. Agriculture: Mongolia had stockpiled 52,600 tonnes of wheat by Oct. 5 toward a 100,000-tonne target to support domestic supply.

Exports and Logistics: Mongolia’s export revenue reached $16.6 billion in the first nine months, up 54% year on year, while foreign-exchange reserves stood at $8.9 billion. Mining shipments are near or at annual targets for copper and coal; the government is also moving to ease congestion at Gashuunsukhait and advance two cross-border rail links. Agriculture: Wheat reserves reached 52,600 tonnes toward a 100,000-tonne goal. The harvest is progressing, with 338,500 tonnes of grain gathered so far against a preliminary forecast of 555,300 tonnes. Skills and Production: Canada’s Olds College and College of the North Atlantic are partnering with Mongolian ministries on a five-year vocational training reform, with courses focused on agriculture, food production and renewable energy. Payments: Khan Bank is among the first UnionPay partners joining a network that will let customers pay by QR code at participating merchants in Japan.

Trade and Mining: Mongolia’s export revenue reached $16.6 billion in the first nine months, up 54% year on year. Copper concentrate exports met the annual target and coal reached 95.7%; the government also ordered steps to ease congestion at Gashuunsukhait and launch more cross-border rail links. Agriculture: Wheat reserves stood at 52,600 tonnes on October 5, against a 100,000-tonne goal. The country had harvested 338,500 tonnes of grain so far, with a planned total of 555,300 tonnes. Tourism: Mongolia has welcomed 856,636 foreign visitors this year, already surpassing the 2025 full-year total as the government pushes to diversify beyond mining. Workforce and Payments: Canadian colleges are partnering with Mongolian ministries and regional schools to update vocational training in agriculture, food production and renewable energy. Khan Bank is also among the first UnionPay partners set to join a network enabling mobile-wallet payments in Japan. Energy and Cashmere: Mongolia selected Gobi Renewables to power the Oyu Tolgoi mine, while the government has provided MNT 440 billion in working-capital loans to the cashmere sector.

Tourism: Mongolia has welcomed 856,636 foreign visitors so far this year, already topping its 2025 total as the government pushes to attract one million a year. Mining and Energy: The EBRD raised its growth forecast for Mongolia, citing record mining output, but warned that Russian fuel disruptions remain a risk. Mongolia has contracted 78,000 tonnes of Russian fuel, while Gobi Renewables was selected to power the Oyu Tolgoi mine. Agriculture: Most of this year’s wheat and vegetable harvest is in, and a new climate-resilience project aims to support 4,000 herder households. Biocombinat is targeting November for its first locally produced foot-and-mouth disease vaccine doses. Infrastructure and Investment: Testing has begun on Ulaanbaatar’s cable-car system. Entrée Resources says transfer of mining licenses to Oyu Tolgoi LLC remains tied to ongoing talks with the government over state participation. Business Services: Khan Bank is among the first UnionPay partners set to join a network enabling QR mobile-wallet payments at participating merchants in Japan.

Mining and Growth: The EBRD raised its growth outlook for Mongolia, citing record mining output, while warning that fuel disruptions, energy costs and water scarcity pose risks. Entrée Resources says it is working to transfer two mining licenses to Oyu Tolgoi LLC, a step needed for underground development to proceed. Agriculture and Climate: Mongolia launched the SMART-Herders project to help about 4,000 households adapt to drought, harsh winters and other climate pressures. The government also aims to release the first domestically produced foot-and-mouth disease vaccine doses in November, reducing reliance on imports. Forestry and Food Production: Mongolia and the EU plan to advance cooperation in forestry, bioeconomy and agriculture, with potential European Investment Bank financing for projects. The government also reported that most wheat and vegetable harvesting is complete. Energy and Transport: Mongolia contracted 78,000 tonnes of fuel from Russia, while testing has begun on Ulaanbaatar’s cable-car system.

Mongolia Energy & Mining: TMK Energy reported a new monthly gas production record at its Gurvantes XXXV coal seam gas project in South Gobi, with September output averaging 872 cubic metres/day and rigs preparing to return. Mongolia Infrastructure: Testing has started for Ulaanbaatar’s Yarmag–Kharkhorin cable car system, including safety checks like simulated power outages and loaded mechanical trials, ahead of Bureau Veritas review and state acceptance. Mongolia Mining Finance: Entrée Resources addressed questions from Mongolia’s parliament on transferring Shivee Tolgoi and Javkhlant mining licenses to Oyu Tolgoi LLC, saying the transfer process is ongoing and tied to state participation and required taxes. Regional Power & Finance: Kyrgyzstan’s cabinet met the EBRD to discuss continued infrastructure investment, with focus on Kambar-Ata HPP-1 and other energy/transport projects. AI Capital Flows: DeepSeek is reportedly close to raising at least 80 billion yuan for an early-2027 IPO, while Moonshot AI also moves toward listing after major funding. Public Health Shock (Global): WHO and ECDC monitored a suspected pneumonic plague death in Russia’s Irkutsk; Russia says no plague found among contacts, while US officials demand more transparency.

Mongolia Energy & Fuel Security: Mongolia’s industry ministry says global diesel and petroleum-product export bans are tightening supply, so firms must source from multiple channels even if volumes fall; AI-92 prices are up and logistics still require transit via Russia or China, with penalties for companies refusing night dispensing. Mining & Oilfield Momentum: TMK Energy reports a new monthly gas production record at its Gurvantes XXXV coal seam gas project as rigs prepare to return to Mongolia’s South Gobi. Power & Infrastructure: Testing has started for Ulaanbaatar’s Yarmag–Kharkhorin cable car, with safety checks including simulated outages and full cabin mechanical trials before passenger launch. Agriculture & Food Supply: Mongolia has harvested most wheat and vegetables (70% wheat, 90% potatoes) and begins purchasing 100,000 tonnes of wheat via the Agricultural Commodity Exchange. Regional Energy Cooperation: Kyrgyzstan and the EBRD discussed accelerating Kambarata HPP-1 and other water, energy, and infrastructure projects. Cross-border Trade: India’s SAIL trial airlift of 1 ton of Mongolian coking coal marks a first step to diversify away from traditional suppliers. Health & Risk Watch: A suspected pneumonic plague scare in Russia’s Irkutsk—after a lab worker’s death—has triggered quarantines and international monitoring, while Russian authorities say tests found no plague-linked microorganisms. AI Capital Flows: DeepSeek is nearing a $12B+ funding round ahead of a 2027 IPO push, underscoring how fast Mongolia’s regional tech and energy demand pressures are rising.

Public Health & Risk Management: Russia’s Siberia plague scare is still driving global attention after a lab worker’s death sparked quarantines and medical observation for nearly 200 people, while Russian authorities insist the case is “pneumonia of unknown etiology” and report no linked pathogens—prompting US and European officials to monitor closely amid calls for more transparency. Mongolia Energy & Industry: Mongolia is reported to be contracting fuel supplies from Russia and facing tighter AI-92 availability as global diesel and petroleum export bans tighten logistics, with the government urging multi-sourcing and transit solutions. Agriculture & Food Security: Mongolia says it has harvested most wheat and vegetables, with 70% of wheat and 90% of potatoes collected, and begins purchasing 100,000 tonnes of wheat via the Agricultural Commodity Exchange. Mining & Power: Mongolia selects Gobi Renewables to supply power for the Oyu Tolgoi mine, signaling continued shift toward renewables in major projects. Environment & Forestry: The “Billions of Trees” autumn campaign continues in Ulaanbaatar with seedlings and tree-planting events, alongside pest and forest protection surveys.

Fuel & Logistics: Mongolia’s Industry and Mineral Resources Minister said fuel supply is tight after the US diesel export ban and China’s Oct 1 petroleum export ban, so the government is helping firms source from multiple suppliers even though fuel must transit via Russia or China; AI-92 prices have risen and night-time dispensing rules are being enforced. Food & Agriculture: Mongolia has harvested most of its wheat and vegetables (70% wheat, 90% potatoes), and the state will buy 100,000 tonnes of wheat via the Agricultural Commodity Exchange, while selecting storage for 13,000–14,000 tonnes of vegetables. Energy Trade: Reports say Russian coal shipments to China fell 10.8% in Jan–Aug 2026 as logistics and tariffs bite, while Mongolia’s coal imports rose sharply—highlighting Mongolia’s growing role in the region’s energy supply chain. Public Programs: The “Billions of Trees” autumn campaign continues, with 78 million trees planted so far by aimags and 140 million total including offsets; meanwhile President Khurelsukh visited Orkhon and Bulgan, touting growth, cashmere exports, food-processing expansion, and energy/industry priorities. Health Risk: A suspected pneumonic plague scare in Russia’s Irkutsk region has put nearly 200 people under observation after a lab worker’s death, triggering hospital restrictions near Mongolia’s border. Sports & Industry Culture: Mongolian rider Murun Purevdorj won the Rally3 World Cup at W2RC, while Mongolia’s construction and training certificate fraud abroad is a reminder of safety and compliance risks for the sector.

Public Health Alert: Russia’s Irkutsk region is monitoring nearly 200 people after a lab worker died from suspected plague, with hospitals and wards under quarantine and restrictions reported near Shelekhov. AI & Semiconductors: DeepSeek and Huawei unveiled an open-source toolkit for Huawei Ascend chips, aiming to weaken Nvidia’s software grip by offering a CUDA alternative for developers. Mongolia–Regional Energy & Mining: Kazakhstan and Mongolia discussed expanding cooperation across energy, agriculture, mining, digitalization, and transport, including plans to boost trade and explore joint projects. Fuel Supply Politics: Mongolia’s Democratic Party criticized fuel shortages and questioned state-backed subsidized loans for fuel storage, arguing public funds may be misused despite existing capacity. Construction Safety: A report alleges fake construction training certificates are being sold in car parks, raising fresh concerns about unsafe worksites in major building projects. Defense Drills: Russia’s Center-2026 exercises showcased new weapons and scenarios involving troops from multiple countries, including Mongolia. Space & Industry: Kyrgyzstan’s first satellite reached orbit via SpaceX rideshare, highlighting how commercial launches are reshaping regional space economics.

Fuel & Agriculture Policy: Mongolia’s opposition Democratic Party says the fuel shortage has dragged on for three months and criticizes state-backed subsidized loans for fuel storage, arguing public funds are being used despite existing capacity. Diplomacy & Trade: Mongolia and Australia held political consultations in Canberra, covering defense, trade, agriculture, mining, energy, and plans for a Sydney consulate ahead of the 55th anniversary of ties. Energy & Regional Industry: Kazakhstan and Mongolia reaffirmed plans to boost trade fivefold and expand cooperation in energy, nuclear energy, digitalization, agriculture, mining, and transport/logistics, including discussion of new air routes and oil supply. Infrastructure Finance: Mongolia signed ADB loan agreements to build and expand schools and kindergartens and to modernize provincial health services, including a new 300-bed hospital in Uvurkhangai. Mining & Exploration: Erdene Resource Development moved its Bayan Khundii gold mine into commercial production and is refocusing on exploration across the Khundii Minerals District. Public Health Shock (Regional): Siberia’s Irkutsk region reported a suspected plague death at an anti-plague institute, triggering quarantine and medical observation for nearly 200 contacts.

Mongolia-Kazakhstan Trade & Energy Push: Mongolia and Kazakhstan reaffirmed plans to boost bilateral trade fivefold and expand cooperation in energy, nuclear, digitalization, agriculture, mining, and transport/logistics, including prospects for more air routes. ADB Financing for Mongolian Human Capital: Mongolia signed Asian Development Bank loan agreements to build/expand schools and kindergartens and to modernize provincial health services, including a new 300-bed hospital in Uvurkhangai. CAREC Clean Energy Forum in Ulaanbaatar: A ministerial energy investment forum under CAREC highlighted Mongolia’s clean energy transition and invited regional investors to back transport, logistics, and critical minerals projects. Mongolia Mining & Cashmere Sector Support: Mongolia’s cashmere sector received large working-capital loans, while a gold miner moved into commercial production at Bayan Khundii and is restarting district-wide exploration. Public Health Alert in Siberia: Russia’s Irkutsk region placed nearly 200 people under observation after a lab worker’s death from suspected plague, raising cross-border concern for the region. Regional Connectivity Talk in Baku: CAMCA Forum discussions focused on cross-border digital finance and “next digital Silk Road” pilots across Central Asia, Mongolia, the Caucasus, and Afghanistan. Space Milestone for Central Asia: Kyrgyzstan’s first satellite reached orbit via SpaceX rideshare, underscoring growing regional space capability.